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BEPA. Boletim Epidemiológico Paulista (Online)

versão On-line ISSN 1806-4272


GUIBU, Ione Aquemi; RAMALHO, Marta Oliveira; TAYRA, Ângela  e  BELOQUI, Jorge Adrian. Incidence of AIDS and estimate of relative rísks by transmission category in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, 1998 to 2005. BEPA, Bol. epidemiol. paul. (Online) [online]. 2010, vol.7, n.78, pp. 04-12. ISSN 1806-4272.

In 2004, the study "Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices in the Brazilian Population" (KAPB) on 15-54 year-old individuals, showed thatin the State of São Paulo (SSP), 1.3% of men used intravenous drugs (IDU), 3.9% had sex with men (MSM) and 89% were heterosexuals. Among women, 0.7% were IDUs and 90.3% heterosexuals. The data enable us to estimate specific populations, and thus calculate incidence rates (IR) by exposure category. This study estimated AIDS incidence rates in the State of São Paulo from 1998 to 2005 and, also calculated the relative risks of developing AIDS in the main exposure categories, including MSM, male IDU, female IDU, female heterosexuals and male heterosexuals, in the 15-49 year-old group. To calculate the IR by 100,000 individuals exposed, we used 3 sources: aids data reported to the SSP Epidemiological Surveillance; population of the SEADE Foundation and SKAP results. To estimate populations, we considered there were no changes in people's behaviors in the period studied, thereby adopting the proportions surveyed by KAPB . Aids IR in male and female IDU (1,735 and 614.8 respectively) in 1998 were the highest, followed by MSM (450.4) and Heterosexuals (22.7 for men). The relative risk for male IDU was 76.3 times higher than for heterosexual males in 1998. All rates dropped during the period studied. Although the number of cases is higher among heterosexuals, this study showed that the epidemic still is concentrated in specific groups, such as MSM and IDU.

Palavras-chave : Incidence; AIDS; Relative risk; Exposure category; Trends.

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